Abstract

CLIMATE CHANGE AND LOW-LYING PACIFIC ISLANDS

A plain person's guide to global warming,
sea-level rise, and the threat to Pacific Islands

by Philip Hall
8 February 2008

It is now widely acknowledged within the scientific community that the global rate of sea-level rise is quickening – and is likely to continue to do so – as a result of anthropogenic climate change. It is expected, therefore, that any resulting increase in the frequency or intensity of extreme sea-level events will cause serious problems for the inhabitants of low-lying coastal communities and islands during the 21st century.

Many Pacific Islands are already suffering more frequent and severe instances of sea inundation due to larger monthly and annual peak tides events. Increases in the height of peak tide events, especially king tides, are being driven by sea levels which have been rising for many decades, but they have intensified in recent years under the effects of human-induced climate change. Unfortunately, this trend will continue to worsen for some years and several Pacific Islands face immediate danger, whatever climate policy is adopted.

This paper attempts to provide simple and credible explanations in response to the three underlying questions which sceptics and everyday people are preoccupied: (1) Is global warming contributing to the rate of sea-level rise?, (2) Why do the rates of sea-level rise vary from place to place? and (3) What is the threat to low-lying islands? A simple analogy – the "Waterbed Effect" – is used to develop and describe the complex interactions that link climate change and sea-level rise, and to help understand and interpret current sea-level data to determine whether the effects of global warming are contributing to the rate of sea-level rise.

This paper also suggests that scientists and those charged with the responsibility for developing and implementing practical strategies to deal with climate change need to look closer at the current short and medium term trends and the extremes. While the underlying sea-level trend can look slow and low-lying coastal communities and island countries are concerned about gradual sea encroachment, it is the vulnerability now and tomorrow of these communities and countries to increasingly frequent and severe sea inundation that is a far more real and urgent problem.
 

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